Shirin Neshat of Sarbazan to All Iranians: Do You Know Where Your Rials are Tonight?
In the Name of My Father:
The August 6th Wall Street Journal story by Margaret Coker and Roshanak Taghavi may provide clues regarding my own August 1st post about $18.5 billion/U. S. conveniently departing Iran for Turkey via truck transport.
Coker and Taghavi state that, “Iranian economists are predicting double-digit currency depreciation by year-end, amid expectations that already high levels of capital flight will increase over fears about Iran’s economic direction.”
It gets worse. Tehran’s limited access to international credit markets are a direct result of anti-IRI sanctions. And Ahmadinejad’s economic program since 2005 has, as the Wall Street Journal reminds us, consisted of lavish spending and “subsidized loan programs to government insiders” [translation: crooked Mullahs]. The 50 Iranian-run money exchange dealers inside the Islamic Republic, the wider Middle East, and Europe, say the Mullahs are selling $180 to $250 million daily to keep the exchange rate of rial to dollar within the central bank’s parameter of 9,700 to 9,900. That amount of money exceeds daily oil revenues for Iran at present market prices for oil.
Outlook according to Coker and Taghavi: the fall of the rial by another 15% by December, and further drops in central bank coffers–an ominous sign given the 25% drop in reserves in the last year.
My own outlook: rial depreciation, further drops in central bank coffers, and ongoing increases in political violence followed by further repressive measures taken by the IRI regime against the Iranian people, will have only one measurable, guaranteed outcome.
The overthrow of the regime.
Indigenous and expatriate Iranians arise. The hour of your redemption draws near. A great, final conflict is coming.
And freedom will win.
Payendeh Iran,
Shirin Neshat of Sarbazan and Janbakhtegan
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Filed under: 1, News Commentary | Tags: Ahmadinejad, capital flight, Iran, Margaret Coker, rial depreciation, Roshanak Taghavi, Wall Street Journal
In the Name of My Father:
The August 6th Wall Street Journal story by Margaret Coker and Roshanak Taghavi may provide clues regarding my own August 1st post about $18.5 billion/U. S. conveniently departing Iran for Turkey via truck transport.
Coker and Taghavi state that, “Iranian economists are predicting double-digit currency depreciation by year-end, amid expectations that already high levels of capital flight will increase over fears about Iran’s economic direction.”
It gets worse. Tehran’s limited access to international credit markets are a direct result of anti-IRI sanctions. And Ahmadinejad’s economic program since 2005 has, as the Wall Street Journal reminds us, consisted of lavish spending and “subsidized loan programs to government insiders” [translation: crooked Mullahs]. The 50 Iranian-run money exchange dealers inside the Islamic Republic, the wider Middle East, and Europe, say the Mullahs are selling $180 to $250 million daily to keep the exchange rate of rial to dollar within the central bank’s parameter of 9,700 to 9,900. That amount of money exceeds daily oil revenues for Iran at present market prices for oil.
Outlook according to Coker and Taghavi: the fall of the rial by another 15% by December, and further drops in central bank coffers–an ominous sign given the 25% drop in reserves in the last year.
My own outlook: rial depreciation, further drops in central bank coffers, and ongoing increases in political violence followed by further repressive measures taken by the IRI regime against the Iranian people, will have only one measurable, guaranteed outcome.
The overthrow of the regime.
Indigenous and expatriate Iranians arise. The hour of your redemption draws near. A great, final conflict is coming.
And freedom will win.
Payendeh Iran,
Shirin Neshat of Sarbazan and Janbakhtegan
Like this: